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Australia & the Pacific Rim

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The center of the world in the next decade

As soon as the Middle East oil wars flicker out, this part of the world will focus the eyes of international politics in the next decade.  While the American media is currently "locked in" on the wreckage of "the Bush war", forces are in motion that will bring Australia to the center of world attention.

Next to China, the location of Australia on this planet holds strategic proximity to the world's largest source of fossil energy--oil. Until the West develops alternative energy sources, oil will remain king of energy technologies.

As early as 1940, the Japanese were well aware that the countries bordering the South China Sea were developing the oil fields discovered on their lands.  When the U.S. embargo from this region cut off the oil supply to Japan, the seeds of the December 7th attack on Pearl Harbor were sown in the back rooms of the Japanese empire.

A great deal has happened since the defeat of Japan in 1945; but, interest in this region had not escaped the attention of the world in general. The French, based in Indo China (now Vietnam) were old timers when it came to understanding the strategic importance of oil to International power. They never took their eyes off those oil survey maps for one minute.

Asia & Far East Editor

In their obsession with control of the oil, the French thought to pay no mind to the interests of the colony that they hoped to manage while they exploited the countryside. They failed to notice that "the times they were a changing"; and, the days of colonial rule were numbered.

What part China played in this saga is history. Certainly the propagation of communism played a strategic role in the expulsion of the French and the subsequent involvement of the U.S. We may never know to what extent oil played in provoking the U.S. to get crosswise with the independence movement from Hanoi.

In retrospect, it is no stretch of the imagination to conjecture that the same influences, that sent Bush into Iraq in 2003, were at play in the South China Sea.  Knowing the French, it is a fair wager that they were working the White House and the boys on "The Hill" for all that it was worth.

The rest of the story, you should know by now. Known as the Gulf of Tonkin Incident, this led to open involvement of the U.S. in the Vietnam war, with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. As with the current Iraq "involvement", if oil was the goal, events would unfold that put this goal out of reach. So, what does all this have to do with Australia?.

With losses unacceptable to the voting public, the U.S. withdrew its land-based presence from the South China Sea region. No longer appearing as a dominant ally in the region, countries such as the Philippines distanced themselves from American interests; and, to put it bluntly, they chose to convert their assets into cold cash.

"Politically correct" historians will record that it was the eruption of Mount Pinatubo volcano that was responsible for the Philippine government voting not to renew a basing agreement in 1992. You can "buy" this story if it makes you feel justified; but, serious consideration will inform you that the loss of the Vietnam war simply raised the rent on Subic Bay and Clark Air Base.

The U.S. was fast losing friends along the Pacific Rim.  The Japanese were not so foolish. Neither were the Chinese on Taiwan.  Sensible heads in Singapore concluded that it might come under fire from insurgents after its traumatic separation from Malaysia; and so, good relations with the U.S. was perceived by them as a stabilizing force in the region to counterbalance the regional powers.

Once the U.S. pulled out of its Philippine bases, the closest land-based presence in the region was in Thailand.  We have a strategic presence further to the east; but, none in the proximity to the South China Sea.  That leaves Australia!!!

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that Australia is the "big dog" in the region in so far as having ground forces, close at hand, capable of dealing with problems such as those arising in the East Timor indepedence movement. [In May 2006 troops from Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Portugal sent troops to Timor attempting to quell violence.]

Just to bring you up to date, the French are back working with Vietnam pumping offshore oil from the South China Sea. After a gunboat sea battle between China and Vietnam, the French cut a deal bringing China in as a business partner.  Do you get the picture yet? With relations in doubt with the Philippines, Australia may be the only major ally we have in the South China Sea region if conflict breaks out big time.